Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. The line connecting the fixed average is known as averagely moving. Soil moisture is one of the essential climate variables with a potential impact on local climate variability. Social fencing is another mechanism that can be adopted in the region. Observed Data 2014). The minimum temperature has a higher correlation with crop production and a stronger correlation between crops and maximum temperature. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. Although the correlation coefficients of crop production and climatic variables are positive, in terms of statistical significance most of them show insignificant correlationexcept barley and wheat, which are significantly correlated with belg, kiremit season and during the month of May. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. 2013). The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The variation inthe amount of solar radiation received daily is small throughout the year. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. 2011). A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. 2015). This study was conducted to explore spatial variability and temporal trends of temperature and rainfall in association with farmers' perceptions and . Figure 1. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. Following the directness of the Sun inMarch and September around the equator, the ITCZ shifts towards equator. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. To determine the weighting the following general formula was employed (, Adapting to Climate Change: Natural Resource Management and Vulnerability Reduction, Background paper to the Task Force on Climate Change, Adaptation and Vulnerable Communities, Coping with drought among pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in eastern Ethiopia, Climate change adaptation strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa: foundations for the future, Climate Change-Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, Beyond the Famine: an Examination of the Issues Behind Famine in Ethiopia, International Institute for Relief and Development and Food for the Hungry International, Trend and variability of rainfall in Tigray, northern Ethiopia: analysis of meteorological data and farmers perception, Trending regional precipitation distribution and intensity: use of climatic indices, Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Crop switching as a strategy for adapting to climate change, Annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in Ethiopia, Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Karamoja, Centennial rainfall variation in semi arid and tropical humid environments in the cardamom hill slopes, southern Western Ghats, India, Micro-level Analysis of Farmers Adaption to Climate Change in Southern Africa, International Food Policy Research Institute, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. However, after 1999 and onwards, recovery in the long-term average rainfall emerged higher than the average mean, except for the drier conditions in 2002 and 2013 which were lower than the long-term mean. 2013; Pachauri et al. 2014; Kishore et al. DB, DebreBerhan; DBS, DebreSina; SH, Sheno; GIN, Ginager; ENW, Enewari; HG, Hagere Mariam; SD, Sendafa. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. 2013). Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. Management of grazing land, such as through cut and carry feeding systems, can help to mitigate and adapt to climate change and variability. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. (2016), overall in the last 35-year period, the five years moving average of the long-term average annual rainfall shows a slight variation (Figure2). Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. 5.3.2. 2015). These have been inconclusive due to the diverse geography, and the role of elevation has significantly influenced the rainfall and temperature distribution of the region (Gamachu 1988; Gebre et al. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. ; ed. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. The percentage changes of mean annual temperature were found to be at maximum change for SD station (31.30%) and at minimum change for DB station (7.60%). The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. The average rainfall inthe region varies from 1,400 to over 2,200 mm/year.iii. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. 2016). The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Hydro-meteorological instrumentation: For monitoring of quality data, which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. The spatial distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall for the Beressa watershed is shown in Figure4. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. Resilience against El Nino in Borana Key Pastoral Resource Management: Do we have the right alliances and institutions? The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. For instance, the mean annual rainfall distribution ranges from > 2000 mm over the southwestern highlands to a minimum of < 300 mm over the southeastern and northwestern lowlands. Therefore, appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies have to be included in the development agenda to reverse the trend. The variability of annual rainfall distribution may be due to the variability of spring and winter rainfall distribution. The exact position of the ITCZchanges over the course of the year, oscillating across the equator. **10% level of significance. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. This development mainly happens in July in Ethiopia and the Horn causingvariability and seasonality.The ITCZ shifts towards south of equator (Tropic of Capricorn) in January. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. In line with Rashid et al. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. 2005; Batisani & Yarnal 2010; Randell & Gray 2016). Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. By comparison, time series of temperature indices show decreases in the intra-annual extreme temperature range and total number of frost days, as well as increases in warm nights. Should reproduce these trends in Table2, the mean summer ; Belg Spring! Four rainfall Regions can be adopted in the Basin importance of soil moisture, on... Data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the development agenda to reverse the trend ( at mm/year. Which would be an early warning system, forecasting/projection and disaster response with timely information climate in CMIP5.. Days from submission to first decision on average details of the country, except southeastern. 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